IMF SAYS GAMBIA'S VAT IS KILLING THE ECONOMY, BUSINESSES

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Gambia’s newly introduced Tax collection system — the Value Added Tax (VAT)- is killing the country’s ailing economy and businesses. “The outlook for the economy is generally favorable for 2013, but there are risks. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate, if the recovery in crop production is sustained.

Also, by accessing new markets, the potential for growth in tourism looks good. Inflation, however, has picked up, partly due to side effects from the introduction of the value-added tax (VAT) at the beginning of the year. For example, although the VAT is applied to firms with a turnover of at least one million dalasis, we understand that many smaller businesses also raised their prices opportunistically. During the first quarter of 2013, government spending once again exceeded planned allocations, contributing to an uptick in Treasury-bill yields. Correspondingly high bank lending rates are discouraging private sector borrowing,” a report issued by an IMF delegation who just concluded discussions with the Gambian authorities on the first review of the ECF arrangement.



The IMF delegation led by David Dunn is also not impressed by Gambia’s recent economic performance. Inflation is on the rise while government spending is jumping the roof.

“The Gambian economy is still recovering from the severe drought of 2011. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 4 percent in 2012, led by a partial rebound in crop production and strength in the tourism sector. Inflation remained under control, ending the year at just under 5 percent, despite the depreciation of the Gambian dalasi during the second half of the year. A substantial overrun in government spending late in the year resulted in higher-than-budgeted domestic borrowing (3½ percent of GDP),” Mr. Dunn said.

Mr. Amadou Colley, Governor of Gambia’s Central Bank earlier this week tried to mislead the press and the nation by depicting a wrong picture of the economy. Colley failed to share the IMF team’s fact finding mission’s report. He instead furnished the press with a different picture of the realities on the ground. His sources are questionable—given the fact that this administration’s reputation of trying to monopolize the truth is evident on their modus operandi.

CBG's governor Amadou Kolley

“The Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBoS), the Gambia economy is estimated to have grown by 6.3 percent in 2012 following a contraction of 4.6 percent in 2011; agriculture valued-added increased by 7.5 percent, industry (6.6 percent) and services (5.8 percent). Money supply grew by 8.8 percent in the year to end-March 2013, lower than the 14.9 percent in 2012. Both narrow money and quasi money grew by 16.3 percent and 2.7 percent compared to 7.8 percent and 9.3 percent respectively a year earlier,” Mr. Colley claimed.

“While reserve money grew by 3.4 percent, lower than the 8.7 percent in March 2012 and the target of 4.8 percent, he said the provisional data on government fiscal operations in the first quarter of 2013 indicate that revenue and grants amounted to D1.5 billion (4.6 percent of GDP) compared to D1.9 billion (5.9 percent of GDP) in the same period in 2012. "Domestic revenue totaled D1.4 billion (4.2 percent of GDP), higher than the D1.2 billion (3.7 percent of GDP) recorded in the corresponding period of 2012."

Mr. Colley admitted that Gambia’s inflation is going out of hand. As such, Colley said, prices for basic commodities, utilities, and energy are going up.

“While consumer food inflation rose from 4.8 percent in March 2012 to 6.4 percent in March 2013 driven mainly by price developments in bread cereals, the consumer non-food inflation also rose to 4.1 percent in March 2013 from 2.7 percent in March 2012 partly reflecting the increase in the cost of energy. Core inflation, which includes the prices to utilities, energy and volatile food items, increased to 5.3 percent from 4.0 percent a year earlier,” Mr. Colley told the local press here.

But IMF’S David Dunn is not optimistic about the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The country’s past crop failure is impacting negatively on the economy. He said VAT is killing the private sector. Businesses are being overtaxed.

IMF’S David Dunn

“The outlook for the economy is generally favorable for 2013, but there are risks. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate, if the recovery in crop production is sustained. Also, by accessing new markets, the potential for growth in tourism looks good. Inflation, however, has picked up, partly due to side effects from the introduction of the value-added tax (VAT) at the beginning of the year. For example, although the VAT is applied to firms with a turnover of at least one million dalasis, we understand that many smaller businesses also raised their prices opportunistically. During the first quarter of 2013, government spending once again exceeded planned allocations, contributing to an uptick in Treasury-bill yields,” Mr. Dunn stated.

While Central Bank Governor Amadou Colley is bragging about the so called performance of the banking sector, Mr. Dunn had a complete different view about Gambia’s banking industry.

“Correspondingly high bank lending rates are discouraging private sector borrowing,” Dunn said.

RUSSIA SEEKS GAMBIA'S SUPPORT TO HOST WORLD EXPO 2020

A special envoy dispatched to Banjul by the Russian Federation has disclosed that he came to seek The Gambia’s support in his country’s bid to host the World EXPO 2020 in the city of Ekaterinburg, report the Daily Observer - government's controlled newspaper.

DV. Shubman, director of the staff of the Deputy Prime Minister, of the Russian Federation, said the event would open up a unique opportunity for the world to rediscover this city, designated in 1723 by Peter the Great, as the industrial centre of Russia. “We are here to promote the Russian bid to host the World Expo 2020. We made a presentation of our project to the Gambia government and we are very hopeful of a positive response from The Gambia,” DV. Shubman told journalists at State House in an interview Thursday, shortly after having a brief meeting with The Gambia’s Presidential Affairs minister, Dr Njogu Bah.

The Russian city to host the 2020 World Expo

“We have a team of our exposition which is a global mind and we are planning to receive up to 150 delegates from all over the world. They will be able to promote their countries in Russia in 2020, especially if Russia wins the bidding competition, of which five countries are battling for a win as to which country will host the event in 2020. Brazil, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates have all officially bid to host the World Expo 2020. A decision will be made at the BIE General Assembly this year to determine the winner of the bids,” he explained.

Asked about the reaction of The Gambia government, Shubman said they are hopeful of a positive response. “We have not had any response yet from the Gambia government but we are hopeful of a positive one. We just came to make a presentation to the Gambian authorities about the bid which voting will take place in November this year in Paris. There is no response yet from the government but our presentation was received at the high level and we are hopeful that we will receive a positive one from The Gambia,” the Russian diplomat told reporters.

Dr Njogu Bah

According to him, his Banjul visit also accorded him and delegation to talk about Gambia-Russia relations. “We hope that we will be able to cooperate with The Gambia to support this project of Expo 2020 bid,” he added.

The Expo 2020 would be the larger of the two kinds of world fairs, analogous to the Summer Olympics. It is considered "sanctioned" by the BIE, held every five years. Germany hosted Expo 2000; Japan hosted Expo 2005 China hosted Expo 2010; and Italy is preparing to host Expo 2015.
DV. Shubman was accompanied to the Presidency by the Russian ambassador to Senegal and accredited to The Gambia, His Excellency Valery Nesterushkin Shubman.

CHINA, AFRICA EXPLORE NEW OPPORTUNITIES TO COOPERATE ON HEALTH CHALLENGES, STRENGTHEN INNOVATIONS

Chinese and African leaders will come together at the 4th International Roundtable on China-Africa Health Cooperation to explore new partnerships to address some of the most pressing health challenges facing Africa and strengthen an innovative health partnership based on south-south cooperation. This year’s roundtable is the first to take place on the African continent. It will focus on promoting sustainable health solutions that meet the needs and priorities of African countries and draw on China’s unique expertise.



Officials will engage in two days of sessions aimed at determining how China and African countries can jointly tackle critical issues such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis, reproductive health, access to lifesaving vaccines and non-communicable diseases. These health issues disproportionately affect African countries and have also been major health challenges for China. At the roundtable, China’s Director General of the National Health and Family Planning Commission will join Health Ministers from Botswana and Ghana; leaders from the African Union; representatives from the United Nations and non-governmental organizations; and entrepreneurs and business owners from China and Africa.

“Indeed, China and Africa have a long history of collaborating on health, built on shared challenges, experiences and addressing similar issues,” said Hon. Rev. Dr. John G. N. Seakgosing, Botswana’s Minister of Health. “China has a unique role in supporting African health progress. And with this roundtable, we look forward to deepening our partnership to benefit the health of our citizens.”

This roundtable comes as China and Africa mark the 50th anniversary of providing medical teams to Africa, with China also supporting African health personnel, infrastructure, malaria control and other programs such as scholarships for training health experts. At this year’s roundtable, officials will discuss how to shape health cooperation between China and Africa and help achieve long-term, sustainable gains, such as strengthening health systems and addressing the shortage of healthcare workers.

“Africa’s future is closely linked with our own and improving health is a critical building block towards a common prosperity,” said Dr. Ren Minghui, Director General of the Department of International Cooperation at China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission. “African countries have made tremendous gains to improve the health of their citizens. With China and Africa working hand-in-hand on health, we can have even greater impact.”

A major theme of the roundtable is how African and Chinese officials can create win-win scenarios that will benefit all partners. Much of China’s health assistance invests in expanding African capacity, which can help strengthen the continent’s self-sufficiency and economic development. China has a unique role in supporting Africa’s health progress, drawing from its investments in health research and development and its experience improving the health of its own citizens, such as its current health reform effort, which is the largest expansion of healthcare coverage in history.
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Roundtable participants will discuss how African countries can best work with Chinese scientists and pharmaceutical manufacturers to increase access to high-quality, low-cost health technologies, while ensuring products are safe and meet international quality standards. Participants will also explore how China can help support Africa’s local production of health products. At the same time, African leaders will share expertise on areas where China can learn from Africa, such as around AIDS prevention and treatment, to help improve China’s efforts at home. Africa has been very successful in scaling up HIV treatment as well as prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs.

“South-South cooperation facilitates optimization of resources, both human and material. This creates opportunities to share knowledge and experience, which contributes to sustainable health solutions,” said H.E. Dr. Mustapha Sidiki Kaloko, Commissioner of Social Affairs of the African Union. “China-Africa health partnership is based on a sense of shared responsibility and global solidarity in responding to health challenges.”

The roundtable comes as China and other emerging economies are bringing new resources and approaches to improve the health of people around the world. “The global health landscape is changing, with more partners than ever joining these efforts,” said Dr. Luiz Loures, Deputy Executive Director of Programme of UNAIDS. “The AIDS response and other experiences paved the way for transformative progress on health and can help China and Africa engage on a whole new level and innovate on a broad range of health issues.”

The roundtable sessions will be guided by discussion papers that draw on extensive research and discussion developed by the China-Africa Health Cooperation Taskforce, comprised of members of the Chinese government and leading technical institutions, with the support of international partners including the World Health Organization, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), UNAIDS, PATH, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Health Strategies Initiatives (GHSi) and other organizations.

Facts you don't want to miss

The papers propose pilot projects for China-Africa collaboration in areas such as strengthening laboratory systems; establishing national control systems for malaria and schistosomiasis; transferring ARV drug manufacturing technology and technical support for local production; training African health personnel; and sharing China’s expertise in cold chain management and surveillance systems to boost immunization coverage. Sessions will also address ways to ensure transparency in these efforts and to guarantee high quality products.

“China has tremendous potential to support Africa’s long-term development by leveraging innovation. The roundtable is an opportunity to define a path for China and Africa to make a positive impact together on health,” said Dr. Ray Yip, Director of the China Program of the Gates Foundation.
One aim of the roundtable is to develop joint recommendations that could lay the groundwork for a long-term strategic plan for China-Africa health cooperation, which could be considered at the Ministerial Forum of China-Africa Health Development, part of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which will take place in August in Beijing.

This year’s roundtable is hosted by the Botswana Ministry of Health, the China Chamber of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute for Global Health of Peking University. The roundtable series, organized by the Institute for Global Health and the China Institute of International Studies, began in 2009 as part of a China-led initiative to evaluate and improve its foreign assistance.

AFRICA ATTRACTIVENESS: CONTINENT'S SHARE OF GLOBAL FDI INCREASES

Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown over the past five years highlighting the growing interest from foreign investors, according to Ernst & Young’s third Africa Attractiveness Survey , released yesterday.

The report combines an analysis of international investment into Africa over the past five years with a 2013 survey of over 500 global business leaders about their views on the potential of the African market. The latest data shows that despite a fall in project numbers from 867 in 2011 to 764 in 2012 — in line with the global trend — project numbers are still significantly higher than anything that preceded the peak of 2008. The continent’s global share of FDI has also grown from 3.2% in 2007 to 5.6% in 2012.
Mark Otty, Ernst & Young’s EMEIA Managing Partner comments, “A process of democratization that has taken root across much of the continent; ongoing improvements to the business environment; exponential growth in trade and investment and substantial improvements in the quality of human life have provided a platform for the economic growth that a large number of African economies have experienced over the past decade.”



Despite the impact of the ongoing global economic situation, the size of the African economy has more than tripled since 2000. The outlook also appears positive, with the region as a whole expected to grow by 4% for 2013 and 4.6% for 2014. A number of African economies are predicted to remain among the fastest growing in the world for the foreseeable future.

Eighty-six percent of those with an established presence on the continent believe that Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business will continue to improve. Those surveyed rank Africa as the second most attractive regional investment destination in the world after Asia.

Increasing investment from emerging markets

Investment in FDI projects from developed markets fell by 20%. Although FDI projects from the UK grew (by 9% year-on-year), those from the US and France — the other two leading developed market investors in Africa — were considerably down. In contrast investments from emerging markets into Africa grew again in 2012, continuing the trend over the past three years.
In the period since 2007, the rate of FDI projects from emerging markets into Africa has grown at a healthy compound rate of over 21%. In comparison investment from developed markets has grown at only 8%. The top contributors from the emerging markets are India (237), South Africa (235), the UAE (210), China (152), Kenya (113), Nigeria (78), Saudi Arabia (56) and South Korea (57) all among the top 20 investors over that period.

Intra-African investment has been particularly impressive during the same period, growing at 33% compound rate. South Africa has been at the forefront of growth in intra-African trade and broader emerging market investment – (the single largest investor in FDI projects in 2012 outside of South Africa.) Kenya and Nigeria have also invested heavily but it is expected that others such as Angola, for example, with a US$5b sovereign wealth fund, will become increasingly prominent investors across the continent over the next few years.

Ajen Sita, Ernst & Young’s Africa Managing Partner comments, “There is a growing confidence and optimism among Africans themselves about the continent’s progress and future.”
AJEN SITA.

There has also been an important shift in emphasis in investment into the continent over the past few years, in terms of both destination markets and sectors. While investment into North Africa has largely stagnated, FDI projects into Sub-Saharan Africa have grown at a compound rate of 22% since 2007. Among the star performers attracting growing numbers of projects have been Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia Mozambique, Mauritius and South Africa.

Perception versus reality

Our 2013 Africa Attractiveness Survey shows some progress in terms of investor perceptions since the inaugural survey in 2011. The majority of respondents are positive about the progress made and the outlook for Africa. Africa has also gained ground relative to other global regions. In 2011 Africa was only ranked ahead of two other regions, while this year it ranked ahead of five other regions (the former Soviet States, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the Middle East and Central America).

However, there still remains a stark perception gap between those respondents who are already doing business in Africa versus those that have not yet invested in the continent. Those with an established business in Africa are overwhelmingly positive. They understand the real rather than perceived operational risks, have experienced the progress made and see the opportunities for future growth. Eight-six percent of these business leaders believe that Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business will continue to improve, and they rank Africa as the second most attractive regional investment destination in the world after Asia.

In contrast, those with no business presence in Africa are far more negative about Africa’s progress and prospects. Only 47% of these respondents believe Africa’s attractiveness will improve over the next three years, and they rank Africa as the least attractive investment destination in the world.
The two fundamental challenges that are present for those already present or those looking to invest in Africa are transport and logistics infrastructure and anti-bribery and corruption. However, moves are being made on both accounts to help allay fears of investors.

Infrastructure gaps, particularly relating to logistics and electricity, are consistently cited as the biggest challenges by those doing business in Africa. At a macro level, too, Africa’s growth will be inherently constrained until the infrastructure deficit is bridged. The flip side of this challenge, however, is that strong growth has been occurring despite such infrastructure constraints. This indicates the potential to not only sustain, but accelerate growth as the gap is narrowed. Our analysis indicates that in 2012 there were over 800 active infrastructure projects across different sectors in Africa, with a combined value in excess of US$700b. The large majority of infrastructure projects are related to power (37%) and transport (41%).

Moving away from extractive industries

Due to volatile nature of commodity prices, an over-dependency on a few key sectors clearly raises questions about the sustainability of growth. Despite perceptions to the contrary, less than one third of Africa’s growth has come from natural resources.

The trend of growing diversification continues, with an ever increasing emphasis on services, manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities. In 2007 extractive industries represented 8% of FDI projects and 26% of capital invested in Africa; in 2012, it was a mere 2% of projects and 12% of capital. In comparison, services accounted for 70% of projects in 2012 (up from 45% in 2007), and manufacturing activities accounted for 43% of capital invested in 2012 (up from 22% in 2007).

Mining and metals is still perceived by survey respondents as the sector with the highest growth potential in Africa, but the number of respondents who believe this (26%) is down from 38% in 2012 and 44% in 2011. In contrast, interest in African infrastructure projects is clearly increasing, with 21% of respondents identifying this as growth sector versus 14% last year and only 4% in 2011. Other sectors where there has been a noticeable shift include ICT (14%, up from 8% last year), financial services (13%, up from 6% last year), and education (which has come from virtually nowhere to register 10% this year).

Mark comments, “These changing perceptions of relative sector attractiveness in Africa reflect the changing fundamentals of many Africa economies: the diversification of both sources of growth (for example, the increasing contribution of services and the growing consumer class), and of the actual FDI flowing into these economies.”

South Africa most attractive for foreign investors but others hot on its heels

The large majority of respondents view South Africa as the most attractive African country in which to do business: 41% of all respondents put South Africa in first place, while 61% included it in their top three. The primary reasons for South Africa’s popularity appear to be it relatively well developed infrastructure, a stable political environment and a relatively large domestic market. The next most popular countries were Morocco (20% placing in the top three, and 8% in first place), Nigeria (also 20% in top three, and 6% in first place), Egypt (15% top three and 5% first), and Kenya (15% top three and 4% first). In general, these rankings align with emerging regional hubs for doing business across different parts of Africa.

Looking ahead

Ajen concludes, “With an increasingly solid foundation of economic, political and social reform, together with resilient growth rates, we are confident that the continent as a whole is on a sustainable upward trajectory. This direction of travel, rather than the current destination, is what is most important.

“A critical mass of African economies will continue on this journey. Despite the fact that there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road, there is a strong probability that a number of these economies will follow the same development paths that some of the Asian and other Rapid Growth Markets have over the past 30 years. By the 2040s, we have no doubt that the likes of Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa will be considered among the growth powerhouses of the global economy.”

PRIZE IDENTIFIES BREAKTRHOUGHS THAT EXAMPLIFY AFRICA'S INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

CAPE-TOWN, South-Africa, May 8, 2013/ -- With global population expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050 and more than 900 million people living in hunger, the demand for nutritious food is rapidly increasing. Acknowledging this need and the impact of hunger in Africa, the Innovation Prize for Africa (IPA) has named the AgriProtein team as its 2013 winner. The team of researchers and entrepreneurs will receive USD 100 000 for its innovative approach to nutrient recycling – a method that uses waste and fly larvae to produce natural animal feed.
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Selected from more than 900 applications from 45 countries, the AgriProtein team was recognized at the 2013 Innovation Prize for Africa Awards Ceremony and Gala Dinner in Cape Town, South Africa. The AgriProtein solution collects biodegradable waste, feeds it to flies that in turn produce larvae that are ground into protein to provide a more ecologically friendly, naturally occurring type of animal feed. This approach improves the nutritional value of meat and lowers the cost of animal feed for African processors and farmers

The IPA 2013 Gala also recognized two runners up for their contributions to African innovation. In the business potential category, Hassine Labaied and Anis Aouini from Saphon Energy received USD 25 000 for creating a bladeless wind convertor. In the social impact category, Sanoussi Diakite received USD 25 000 for developing a thermal powered machine that husks 5 kilograms of fonia – a West African cereal – in just 8 minutes.
“The Innovation Prize for Africa winners showcase African solutions to African challenges,” said Jean-Claude Bastos de Morais, co-founder of the African Innovation Foundation and the IPA. “It is time for private sector leaders, donors and governments to work together to invest in practical solutions that will sustain Africa’s economic growth.”

Winners were selected by a skilled panel of jurors based on the marketability, originality, scalability, social impact and business potential of their respective innovations. They are provided with unrestricted funds in recognition of their achievements and are free to use the Prize in the manner they deem most appropriate.

“We are honoured by this remarkable recognition,” said Jason Drew a member of the AgriProtein team. “We are passionate about expanding our business to recycle more waste nutrients and supply a natural protein to feed farm animals - helping sustainably feed our continent - this is an African contribution to sustainable agriculture for our planet.”

Founded by the African Innovation Foundation and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the IPA is focused on building Africa’s capacity by investing in local entrepreneurship. The Prize mobilizes leaders from all sectors – private sector, donors and government – to promote and invest in African development through innovation.

“The AgriProtein team’s innovation is just one example of the game-changing African ideas that will continue to harness our natural resources profitably and sustainably,” said Dr.Francois Bonnici, Director Bertha Centre for Social Innovation at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business. “The IPA invests in Africa’s greatest resource – its human capital.”