GAMBIA EXCLUDED IN FIVE W/AFRICAN COUNTRIES TO FACE FOOD CRISIS

Millions of people in about five West African countries will face food crisis in early 2012 if early warning systems are ignored, the United Nations aid officials have said.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), together with the World Food Programme (WFP) and British charity Oxfam, said failed harvests and low food reserves in the Sahel, particularly the countries of Chad, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Mali, would affect up to 11 million people.

Protective measures need to be put in place as a matter of urgency, Oxfam reports.
Early estimates indicate that six million people in Niger and 2.9 million people in Mali are vulnerable, while up to a quarter of Mauritania’s population – about 700,000 people - is reported to be at risk of severe food insecurity. In Chad, 13 out of 22 regions are expected to be affected adversely.
Early warning systems indicate that estimates for the 2011 harvest point to a dramatic decrease in cereal production in the Sahel, estimated at 25 per cent. But erratic rains and extended dry periods are expected to exacerbate lower production and lead to higher food prices.
Even though poor weather conditions, including volatile rains, have affected productions, The Gambia stands out this African phenomenon, thanks to economic philosophies.

According to estimates, the ‘lean season’, when food availability is at its lowest, is likely to start two to four months earlier than normal, while in parts of Mauritania as early as January.
"Pastoralist farmers will certainly be hard hit, but there will be strong impacts beyond this group too," Stephen Cockburn, Regional campaign and policy manager at Oxfam, said.

Cockburn said the positive thing in West Africa now is that the governments most affected by the crisis have publicly recognised the severity of the coming calamity, and most have developed or are developing emergency response plans.
"There is in general a degree of responsiveness that provides the political space to act, and must be built on to ensure all countries develop plans that are supported also by outside actors.

"Among these, women, small livestock holders, poor households with limited access to productive means, households who used to rely on seasonal migration in conflict-affected areas and communities living in areas affected by insecurity are likely to be the most affected.
"High food prices - up to 40 per cent higher than the five-year average - will have a more general impact across the region."

scope of food crisis exaggerated

Even though reports by UN agencies present scaring facts about the scope of food crisis in the region, other school of thoughts and concerned agencies give a different picture of the situation.

Seif Sow, regional representative of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a USAID-funded organisation that monitors food security issues, including strengthening early warning systems, told Al Jazeera the warnings of an impending crisis in the region "are exaggerated".

"Crop failures are localised, meaning that some parts of the countries are affected. But in other parts, there has been decent rainfall and so it’s a mixed situation. The overall production is average.

"They have exaggerated the numbers and the scope of the problem. Response has already started, herders are moving and countries are stocking up. They need to take into account that people have coping strategies, and yes, there has been a decrease in production, but it is not a catastrophe," Sow said.
"If nothing is done, then yes it could be a crisis, but people are acting, through protective programmes and people are developing survival mechanisms…This is not a war situation. A one-year food deficit will not translate into famine.”

However, Cockburn said the fact that herders are already moving as a means of surviving, illustrates that serious problems are likely if protective action is not taken. He added that the figures used by Oxfam are widely accepted figures "taken directly from national warning systems and validated by the CILSS".
"We should remember too that this region is chronically vulnerable to food crisis - major crises were felt here in 2005, 2008 and 2010 - and even in a 'normal' year, 300,000 children die of malnutrition-related causes.

"When you start from this base, even moderate shocks can have huge impacts on the most vulnerable - and the shocks experienced this year are significant. Levels of global acute malnutrition in the Sahel region are consistently above what UNICEF recognises as emergency levels, even outside 'crisis years'."